Revised Comparison of Tunnel Collapse Frequencies and Tunnel Failure Probabilities

Comparison of calculated failure probabilities technical systems with observed frequencies is an important part the assessment probabilistic calculations and can point to significant factors that are neglected in calculations. Recent comparisons nuclear power plants, bridges, dams have shown values correspond surprisingly well. In addition, although various could be identified which both positive negative influences on values, they almost cancel each other out. This study focuses comparison as it relates tunnels. Extensive statistics indicate most tunnel collapses occur during construction. Although this also seen a certain extent not Events such earthquakes floods, major causes collapse structures, account for only about 10% 20% all collapses. Increasingly, tunnels being proven probabilistically. Based these calculations, available compared representative proofs. The shows large deviations between individual computations well mean value frequencies.